Flavio Lehner | Known Unknowns or Unknown Unknowns? Sources of Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections and How to Handle Them

Abstract: Climate is changing and is expected to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. How much exactly is however unknown because many different sources of uncertainty contribute to cloud our outlook. Do we understand the physics well enough? Are climate models fit for purpose? What are humans going to do? And what about natural variability of the climate system? In this talk, I will discuss all of these sources of uncertainty and how, despite them, we can make useful predictions about future climate and its impacts on humans and ecosystems.

Bio: Flavio Lehner joined the Cornell Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences in 2020 as an assistant professor. “Climate science is inherently an interdisciplinary science and solving its puzzles requires the kind of open-mindedness and excellence that a place like Cornell has fostered since its foundation,” says Lehner. Lehner’s research strives to improve our collective understanding of large-scale climate variability and change and its influence on regional climate impacts such as droughts, heatwaves, or wildfires.

This event is presented as part of the 2023 Perspectives on the Climate Change Challenge Seminar Series:

Most Mondays, Spring Semester 2023, 2:45-4:00pm(via Zoom OR In person in 155 Olin Hall)This university-wide seminar series is open to the public, and provides important views on the critical issue of climate change, drawing from many perspectives and disciplines. Experts from Cornell University and beyond present an overview of the science of climate change and climate change models, the implications for agriculture, ecosystems, and food systems, and provide important economic, ethical, and policy insights on the issue. The seminar is being organized and sponsored by the Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering and Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability.